Addicted to simple wrong models.

I find it strange that in the modern world, we happily use simple models that are entirely wrong.

The Gartner Cycle since about 2000, has featured about 250 technologies. Of these, if we are generous, 2 seem to have followed the "cycle", 3D printing and AR. So 248 failures and 2 successes!

The Garner hype cycle also failed to track almost every significant tech trend, from 3G to QR codes to eCommerce to OpenSource. Other "movements" like Cloud computing or Smartphones were added so late to the model, that they jumped straight to mainstream.

It is, as a model, utterly utterly useless. It's reflects a reality that isn't true. Tech adoption is far more complex. To assume every technology thats hyped, will end up slowly being adopted is madness. To think all technologies are overhyped doesn't reflect reality.

But using models, it seems, is a sign of smartness and robust thinking.

The purchase funnel is another.

The idea we become aware of things, understand things, are interested, consider, buy, evaluate and may become loyal is preposterous. How many products will ever lead to loyalty? How many items do we own but not understand much or even prefer? How many things did we never think about much?

We love consumer journeys, the idea a customer behaves a certain way and in a nice order

We love demographics, the idea that Generation X is a group of people, yet how many people have two kids, vaguely the same age, that are totally different to each other?

I'd love us to be a little more thoughtful, a bit more confident in asking questions that show discernment, like is this absolute nonsense?